Keeping you on the right side of the market

So there we have it; this great programme that was supposed to bring relief to thousands of homeowners has turned out to be a curse in disguise. Individuals had to wait months to find out if they would qualify for the programme. While waiting, they continued to make payments only to find out that in the end they did not qualify. Isn’t this just lovely? You have one foot in the grave and the government instead of offering a helping hand hands you a shovel and tells you to start digging. Avoid the housing sector, and if you are aggressive consider shorting stocks such as BZH and LEN; use strong rallies to open up new positions.

The government’s mortgage-modification program has left some struggling homeowners worse off than they were before.

The Treasury reported Monday that nearly one in four homeowners who were offered lower payments under the Obama administration’s 15-month-old effort have been weeded out of the program. Many people were removed from the trials because they failed to make payments, didn’t provide all the financial documents needed to qualify or were found to be ineligible.

Homeowners are first offered trial modifications under the program, which provides incentive payments to loan servicers, investors and the homeowners. If borrowers make the payments and satisfy other criteria, those trials are made permanent, ensuring a cut in payments for five years.

While awaiting answers, some borrowers keep making payments, exhausting their savings in what may be a futile effort to save their homes. They also incur fees from the banks and delay taking action that might give them a fresh start in a more affordable home.

Some borrowers had unrealistic expectations about loan-relief programs, which were never designed to prevent all foreclosures. Another big problem is that banks often take six to 12 months to determine whether applicants are eligible.

"I had to learn the hard way and deplete my savings doing it," said Mia Parry, a manager at a mortgage brokerage in Scottsdale, Ariz., who has spent nearly two years seeking a loan modification. She now wishes she had put her home on the market.

Most struggling borrowers do benefit from seeking help, said Aaron Horvath, a senior vice president at Springboard Inc., a nonprofit counseling service based in Riverside, Calif.

Some win modifications, cutting monthly payments by hundreds of dollars. Others who ultimately can’t get modifications at least are allowed to stay in their homes for months, making either no payments or reduced payments.

But "if you’re draining your savings" in a vain effort to hang onto a home, he said, you may end up worse off. Full story

Disclosure

We have no positions in the stated investments

Watch out for emergencies. They are your big chance.
Fritz Reiner

While everyone is focusing on the so called obvious factors, they have missed the most important factor; the real reason behind the crisis. The crisis started in Greece and the top EU members knew they were going to bail out Greece and potentially any other member that needed help, but they pretended that they would not. One of the obvious reasons for the bailout was not to protect Greece, but to save the bond holders; most of the bond holders are foreigners. That’s the same reason the banks were bailed out in the US, to protect the large shareholders; it’s all a game of smoke and mirrors.

Our hypothesis is that the main reason that the Euro crisis was allowed to evolve was to deflate the Euro. Note that we have stated many times in the past that we have now entered into the competitive currency devaluation era, where the theme is or will soon be “devalue or die”. Or maybe we should add “devalue or die trying to”, for nations are going to do whatever it takes to keep their products competitive in the global market. We recently spoke of this phenomenon in two separate articles Currency-devaluation-a-race-to-the-bottom and the devalue or die era is picking up steam

Germany was knocked out of the top place and replaced by China as the world’s largest exporter and that must have hurt. Thus by allowing the crisis to progress, the EU could, in fact, devalue the Euro without actually issuing new currency. And then when things started to look really bad, they could pretend to help by approving a huge package, but this package would now devalue the euro even more. Thus with one stone they killed two birds in the sense that it produced double the effect. If they had approved a bailout package immediately, the euro would not have shed as much as it did. In a matter of months the Euro dropped almost 24%; in the currency markets, this is considered to be a very large move.

Another factor to consider is that no government wants to pay its debt in a stronger currency; governments borrow money so that they can pay it back with cheaper currency.

Thus while one currency might appear to be appreciating against another; the truth is that they are all falling down, some faster than others. Take a look at some long term commodity charts, and you will notice that most of them are in up trends, regardless of which currency they are priced. For example, a 3 year chart of gold priced in any currency shows that it’s in an uptrend. The race to the bottom has picked up in intensity. We would not be surprised now if some sort of crisis hits Asia soon; this would complete the circle perfectly. A position in precious metals is recommended; view this as a hedge/insurance against another potential crisis; if you have no position wait for a pull back before deploying new money.

Crises refine life. In them you discover what you are.
Allan K. Chalmers

Disclosure:

We have positions in Gold, Silver and Palladium

The number of homeowners who missed at least one mortgage payment surged to a record in the first quarter of the year, a sign that the foreclosure crisis is far from over.

More than 10 percent of homeowners had missed at least one mortgage payment in the January-March period, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. That number was up from 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 9.1 percent a year earlier.

More than 4.6 percent of homeowners were in foreclosure, also a record. But that number, which is not adjusted for seasonal factors, was up only slightly from the end of last year.

Stocks slid Wednesday as investors looked past a rising euro and focused on the U.S. economy, including the rising number of foreclosures. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 100 points in early trading. Jay Brinkmann, the trade group’s chief economist, said the foreclosure crisis appears to have stabilized. Seasonal adjustments may be exaggerating the change from the previous quarter, he added.

"I don’t see signs now that it’s getting worse, but it’s going to take a while," he said. "A bad situation that’s not getting worse is still bad." Full Story

Another validation of what we have been stating all along. The current housing recovery is all smoke and mirrors. Numbers are being twisted to make it look like the housing sector has put in a bottom, when, in fact it has not. Unemployment is still very high and without a job no one is going to go out and buy a house; worse yet, it is still hard to get approved for a mortgage. Our advice is to avoid the housing sector, unless you get a very very good deal and or are buying farmland. In the years to come high food prices will make farmland a very valuable commodity.

Poverty is the parent of revolution and crime.
Aristotle, BC 384-322, Greek Philosopher

The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer and the middle class is getting screwed. Daniel Hoffman states that the underclass (undeserving poor) now makes up 10% of the US population Full Story This is shocking considering that the US is supposed to be a first world country. If so many people are hurting why are we fighting wars we cannot afford, policing the world and donating money to nations who do not deserve it.

The following data suggests that the situation is only going to get worse. This is by no means a comprehensive list.

Unemployment:

The unemployment rate is officially 9.9%, but everyone knows this figure is just huge fat lie. The true rate is probably in the 18%-20% ranges. Some parts of the country have rates in excess of 25%

The foreclosure factor:

Home sales might be improving, but most of the improvements are a direct result of the 8,000 credit the government offered first time home buyers. In 2009 roughly 3 million homes were foreclosed and www.Realtytrac.com states that the number could increase by as much as 3.5 million in 2010. If we add in strategic foreclosures, the picture will probably look a lot worse.

According to Reuters roughly 40 million Americans are on food stamps

Nearly 40 million Americans received food stamps — the latest in an ever-higher string of record enrolment that dates from December 2008 and the U.S. recession, according to a government update. Full Story

The dept of Agriculture states that 1 in 8 Americans may not be able to eat without government assistance. Let this figure sink in, we are not talking about some third world country, we are talking about the US. This is a clear sign that things are a lot worse than they are being made to look. The undeserving poor could grow in leaps and bounds if the economy suddenly hits a road bump. Europe is already in the midst of a second recession.

According to the most recent census, about 35 million Americans live in poverty

Let’s also consider the fact that some jobs are never coming back. We covered this recently in the following article High unemployment levels here to stay.

Dollar tree, Wal-Mart, Sam’s club and other large warehouse clubs are all booming; a sign that individuals are looking for bargains. Bargain hunting is usually a sign that all is not well.

Catherine Rampell provides additional information on this topic

In December 2008, 22.9 percent of the unemployed had been out of work for at least 27 weeks. A year later, that portion rose to 39.8 percent. That translates to having about 4 percent of the total civilian work force categorized as long-term unemployed.

Here’s a look at how many weeks the average jobless person has been jobless for:

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The average person who was unemployed in December had been out of work for 29.1 weeks. By contrast, when the recession began two years earlier, the average unemployed person had been out of work for 16.5 weeks. Full Story

Conclusion

The underclass or the undeserving poor are growing as a group and many of those that are being pushed into this group are individuals who formerly belonged to the middle class. Given that unemployment is going to remain high for years to come, it appears that this trend will continue for sometime. In many cases this could have been avoided if these individuals had chosen to live 1-2 standards below their means and put the money they saved into good investments. For example, high dividend yielding stocks or invested some of this money in bullion, high quality technology, commodities based stocks, etc. Instead many of these individuals lived a lifestyle that was several levels above what they could afford and now sadly they are paying the price for their lack of foresight. However, it would be wrong to lump everyone into this category. If we are hit with another recession, then the outlook could deteriorate significantly.

We are not concerned with the very poor. They are unthinkable, and only to be approached by the statistician or the poet.
Edward M. Forster, 1879-1970, British Novelist, Essayist

From top to bottom of the ladder, greed is aroused without knowing where to find ultimate foothold. Nothing can calm it, since its goal is far beyond all it can attain. Reality seems valueless by comparison with the dreams of fevered imaginations; reality is therefore abandoned.
Emile Durkheim,1858-1917, French Sociologist

Let’s do some simple math.

There are roughly 910 million shares of apple in existence and the entire company has a valuation of 231 billion dollars.

To put things into perspective let’s examine the valuation of the following companies.

All the above companies put together would still have a valuation lower than that of AAPL. Roughly, they would have a combined valued of 214 billion. If one had to choose between buying AAPL and all the above companies, the wise choice would be to dump AAPL and jump into the above companies, especially since we are in the midst of a commodity bull. With left over change, you could purchase HL, KGC, RGLD, and you still would have some money left over.

Some other facts to consider

BHP is the largest mining company in the world and yet its valuation is well below that of AAPL, as of Monday it has a valuation of 182 billion shares.

You would be able to buy all the following Gold mining companies and still have a huge amount of change left.

• Barrick Gold $40 billion
• Goldcorp $29.478 billion
• Kinross Gold $13.50 billion
• Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited 9.84 billion
• Eldorado Gold Corporation $7.95 billion
• Yamana Gold Inc. $8.17 billion
• IAMGOLD Corporation $6.87 billion
• Red Back Mining Inc $5.80 billion
• Osisko Mining Corp. $2.86 billion
• Centerra Gold $3.03 billion

What would you do given the choice; buy apple or purchase a stake in some of the top commodities based companies in the world.

All pain is either severe or slight, if slight, it is easily endured; if severe, it will without doubt be brief.
Marcus T. Cicero,c. 106-43 BC, Great Roman Orator, Politician

As the saying goes, a picture speaks a thousand words and the charts below quite clearly illustrates that the Dow has not put in a single new high in the past 3 years.

When the Dow is priced in Gold all we get is a long term down trend line. This clearly illustrates how the masses are being fooled into believing that these illusory highs are real highs.

When the Dow is priced in Canadian dollars, we also get a similar picture though not as striking as when it’s priced in Gold.

When priced in Australian dollars the picture is almost as striking as when it’s priced in Gold. These charts clearly illustrate the sinister nature of inflation; your wealth is literally being stolen right in front of your eyes.

Conclusion

Inflation the silent killer tax is being used to fleece the masses; you work hard for your money, you pay taxes and instead of getting a pat on your back you get a kick in the cahones. Welcome to the real world. The way to protect oneself from this insidious disease is to stay one step ahead of the central bankers. Precious metals are one way to hedge oneself, but they are not the only way and not always the best option. For example, from the mid 1990’s to 1999 the dot.com era was a good way to stay ahead of the inflation game, and then from 1998 to roughly 2006, real estate was a good bet, and so on. Given the rate at which new money is being created and the fact that many nations are reaching the point of no return in terms of paying back their debt, it would be extremely wise to have a position in precious metals (Gold, Silver, etc). In fact, having a position in any commodity is a good idea for the current commodity bull still has a long way to go before a long term top is put in.

You know the world is going crazy when the best rapper is a white guy, the best golfer is a black guy, the tallest guy in the NBA is Chinese, the Swiss hold the Americas Cup, France is accusing the U.S. of arrogance, Germany doesn’t want to go to war, and the three most powerful men in America are named Bush, Dick, and Colon.
Chris Rock Comedian

Observation more than books and experience more than persons, are the prime educators.

Amos Bronson Alcott,1799-1888, American Educator, Social Reformer

There is a need for a quantum leap in the governance of the euro area," European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet told Der Spiegel magazine.

Echoing his call, ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said turbulence in the euro zone would calm down only if member countries reformed their economies and cut their deficits.

"We have bought time, nothing more," he said in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

Euro zone governments agreed a 750 billion euro ($1 trillion) rescue last weekend to end a crisis of confidence in the euro triggered by financial problems in Greece, which had threatened to envelop the region’s much bigger economies.

"It is not an attack on the euro," he said. "It is clear that it is the primary responsibility of the Europeans to take the appropriate measures in order to counter the present severe tensions which have erupted in Europe."

Trichet has long urged euro zone governments to cut budget deficits to stop debt piling up. The failure of the Greek government to take this advice led to a debt crisis that risked spreading to other euro zone countries with similar problems.

"There need to be major improvements to prevent bad behaviour, to ensure effective implementation of the recommendations made by ‘peers’ and to ensure real and effective sanctions in case of breaches."

In Zagreb, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said bailouts had to be harsh to avoid encouraging reckless behaviour by governments.

"This mechanism must be made so unattractive that no leader of any (EU) country is voluntarily tempted to resort to this system," Rehn said in a speech.  Full story

Exactly, we could not have said it better; if any help is offered (we are against this, but if the measures implemented are harsh enough it might just work) the restrictions should be so painful that it will make others think twice before breaking the rules. So far, all we have is talk; let’s see if it turns into action.

Now the head of European central bank finally agrees with what we have been saying all along. As we have stated before when bankers make comments that actually make sense one should pay heed to them. We feel that only a severe lesson will be sufficient enough to trigger the other laggards into finally pushing in long term meaningful measures to balance their budgets. Until then they will nod yes but in terms of actions nothing will change; it will be the business as usual.

The Euro has already hit one of our targets; when it was trading at or close to new highs we stated that it would trade down to the 120 ranges before putting in a bottom. However, the picture has changed slightly, and it now appears that the Euro could potentially trade down to the 115 ranges. We recommended shorting the Euro Via Euo several times, but at this point in the game, we think it’s a bit late to open up new positions, unless the Euro mounts a strong rally over the next few weeks.

Disclosure

We have positions in EUO

Related Articles

Euro; the Worst is yet to come,  May 12, 2010

Euro shock and awe bailout, more like shock and shake May 10, 2010

Ulterior motive behind Greek Bailout, May 3, 2010

Roast the PIIGs; End the Euro crisis April 30, 2010 

Try not to become a man of success but rather to become a man of value.
Albert Einstein

Higher Gold and Petrol prices are some of the clear signs that inflationary forces are gathering steam. Do not confuse inflationary forces with inflation; inflation is defined as an increase in the supply of money.

There are several reasons why inflation could become a threat in the years to come

1) Government spending is going through the roof; they seem to think that we will never have to pay this money back.

2) Unfunded liabilities for Medicare, social security, etc, add up to over $108 trillion. This is a ticking time bomb for everyone claims that our national debt is high but in comparison to the unfunded liabilities, the national debt is child’s play.

3) As the Fed has dropped interest rates almost to Zero, it has very little firepower left. It could take rates to the negative level and pay people to borrow money; this will really stimulate the economy in the short run before burning it up completely. However, this option is more of a dream than a reality. The truth is that fed is almost out of options. If the economy should slow down and move back into a recessionary phase, then the only option available would be to print boat loads of money. The net result would be stagflation; higher inflation and slow growth and also the odds of entering a hyperinflationary phase would go up significantly.

Look at the price of Petrol; when oil was trading at $140, petrol was selling for 3.30-3.50 a gallon. Oil recently did not even make to $85 but the cost of petrol is already 3 plus dollars a gallon. Based on this it would be fair to state that when oil trades back to the 140 ranges, the price could surge to the $6-$7 ranges.

Many point out that we could face deflationary scenario for years to come. Well, this might be true; there is nothing wrong with hedging yourself, that’s what investing is all about. One should not bet all of one’s money on a single strategy.

In an inflationary and hyperinflationary environment, commodities perform very well. Having positions in precious metals, base metals, energy, and select agricultural stocks would be a good way to protect hedge oneself. One should also have some of their assets in pure bullion (Gold, Silver, etc.).

For those who are against precious metals, one other option is to invest in TIPS and one of the ways of doing this is through TIP, iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund.

  You cannot have what you do not want.

John Acosta, Poet

Disclosure

We have positions in Gold and Silver bullion

Things turn out best for those who make the best of the way things turn out.
Jack Buck

We have been stating this for a long time and its good to see someone from the banking sector finally echo our sentiments. When an important banker makes a statement one should pay attention especially if it makes sense, as usually they are full of dribble.

For those who speak German, Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann made the following statement

"Ob Griechenland über die Zeit wirklich in der Lage ist, diese Leistungskraft aufzubringen, das wage ich zu bezweifeln"

For those who do not speak German the excerpt below provides a clear translation of the above statement.

Ackermann, one of Europe’s top bankers who has helped to put together a private-sector bailout package for Greece, questioned the country’s ability to turn itself around, according to excerpts of a transcript for the Maybrit Illner talkshow set to be broadcast on German television ZDF on Thursday evening. Greece has been forced to implement tough austerity measures as a precondition for an international bailout, a move that has sparked widespread protests in the southern European country.

"Whether Greece over this time period is really in a position, to bring up the strength to make this effort, I have my doubts," Ackermann said in the transcript, adding that this requires "unbelievable efforts".

If Greece were to "fall down" this could spread to other countries and lead to "a sort of meltdown," Ackermann told ZDF. Full Story

The EU could pay bond holders part of their debt as  (they are already throwing good money into a deep black hole); bailing out the bond holders is what all this whole story is about. They like and make false claims that they are trying to save Greece, etc.   The next step would be to push Greece out of the EU. Yes it would be painful in the short term, but it would also send out a strong message, that the EU is willing to do what is necessary to defend the Euro. . Over 51% of the  Greek public is completely against the new Austerity measures the government has implemented. This is a clear sign that these measures will not hold. So what sense does it make to give them money when everyone knows that they will come begging for more soon. At this rate, the can is being kicked further down the filed, instead being kicked completely of the field.

The wise man can pick up a grain of sand and envision a whole universe. But the stupid man will just lay down on some seaweed and roll around in it until he’s completely draped in it. Then he’ll stand up and go hey, I’m Vine Man.
Jack Handey

Related Articles

More Euro woes; Wage cuts May 13, 2010

World’s 1st gold ATM; a sign of a top? May 13, 2010

Euro; the Worst is yet to come,  May 12, 2010

Euro shock and awe bailout, more like shock and shake May 10, 2010

Ulterior motive behind Greek Bailout, May 3, 2010

Roast the PIIGs; End the Euro crisis April 30, 2010 

  Sometimes I lie awake at night, and I ask, ‘Where have I gone wrong?’ Then a voice says to me, ‘This is going to take more than one night.

Charlie Brown

The story below clearly illustrates that a huge swath of jobs are never coming back. Jobs in these sectors have been permanently eradicated, and thus it is going to make the task of finding replacement jobs even harder, especially since many of these individuals are in their late 40’s to early 60’s. They are basically going to have to learn new skills and that is not an easy thing to do at such an age, especially when you have dedicated your whole life to a specific job.

Worse yet the remaining jobs in the in the clerical field, secretarial, travel agency field, auto market sector, etc, are going to keep coming under pressure. As we see it employment numbers will remain high even when the economy starts to show real signs of life; so far, the so called signs of improvement are all bogus.

For the last two years, the weak economy has provided an opportunity for employers to do what they would have done anyway: dismiss millions of people — like file clerks, ticket agents and autoworkers — who were displaced by technological advances and international trade. The phasing out of these positions might have been accomplished through less painful means like attrition, buyouts or more incremental layoffs. But because of the recession, winter came early.

The tough environment has been especially disorienting for older and more experienced workers like Cynthia Norton, 52, an unemployed administrative assistant in Jacksonville.

“I know I’m good at this,” says Ms. Norton. “So how the hell did I end up here?”

Administrative work has always been Ms. Norton’s “calling,” she says, ever since she started work as an assistant for her aunt at 16, back when the uniform was a light blue polyester suit and a neckerchief. In the ensuing decades she has filed, typed and answered phones for just about every breed of business, from a law firm to a strip club. As a secretary at the RAND Corporation, she once even had the honor of escorting Henry Kissinger around the building. But since she was laid off from an insurance company two years ago, no one seems to need her well-honed office know-how.

Ms. Norton is one of 1.7 million Americans who were employed in clerical and administrative positions when the recession began, but were no longer working in that occupation by the end of last year. There have also been outsize job losses in other occupation categories that seem unlikely to be revived during the economic recovery. The number of printing machine operators, for example, was nearly halved from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2009. The number of people employed as travel agents fell by 40 percent.

This “creative destruction” in the job market can benefit the economy.

Ms. Norton has sent out hundreds of résumés without luck. Twice, the openings she interviewed for were eliminated by employers who decided, upon further reflection, that redistributing administrative tasks among existing employees made more sense than replacing the outgoing secretary. The problem cannot be that the occupation she has devoted her life to has been largely computerized, she says.

“You can’t replace the human thought process,” she says. “I can anticipate people’s needs. Usually, I give them what they want before they even know they need it. There will never be a machine that can do that.” Full Story

The smart thing to do now would be to start training ASAP for jobs in the nuclear industry, oil and gas industry, health sectors, utility sector (power transmission), etc for this is where the growth lies. We are leaving out the high tech sectors such as computer programming, biotech, chemical engineer, petroleum engineer, etc, because we feel that the average person is not going to want to put in the time it takes to study those filed.

The smartest thing to do is to live 1-2 standards below your level and to put the money you save into long term investments in the commodity’s sectors (precious metals, energy stocks, select plays in the agricultural sector, etc)for this entire sector is in a long term bull market.

   Here’s to you and here’s to me, and I hope we never disagree. But, if that should ever be, to HELL with you, here’s to ME!

Anonymous,

Disclosure

We have positions in Gold, Silver and Palladium